You write "This year has actually seen a precipitous drop from last year" as if it's evidence that shooting more 3-pointers isn't helping teams. But you completely fail to mention the NBA's new guidelines to referees, to stop awarding free throws to shooters who make "non-basketball moves".
That has caused the most precipitous drop in offensive efficiency in a number of years. Players such as Harden and Lillard who made a living by creating contact with the defender have been especially affected, as has the league overall.
3-points are barely a factor in this big drop-off in offensive efficiency; it's the rule changes that are the key factor.
You are on stronger ground with the analysis of the teams that shoot a lot of 3-pointers. It suggests that some teams -- the ones with a 3-point rate of 0.35 or higher -- may have reached the point of diminishing marginal returns. But that still means there are a lot of teams that should still be shooting more 3-pointers (either by simply shooting more of them, or by acquiring players who are more proficient at shooting 3-pointers).
So we may be approaching peak 3-pointers but the answer to your headline question is "no", we have not yet reached the peak.
You write "This year has actually seen a precipitous drop from last year" as if it's evidence that shooting more 3-pointers isn't helping teams. But you completely fail to mention the NBA's new guidelines to referees, to stop awarding free throws to shooters who make "non-basketball moves".
That has caused the most precipitous drop in offensive efficiency in a number of years. Players such as Harden and Lillard who made a living by creating contact with the defender have been especially affected, as has the league overall.
3-points are barely a factor in this big drop-off in offensive efficiency; it's the rule changes that are the key factor.
You are on stronger ground with the analysis of the teams that shoot a lot of 3-pointers. It suggests that some teams -- the ones with a 3-point rate of 0.35 or higher -- may have reached the point of diminishing marginal returns. But that still means there are a lot of teams that should still be shooting more 3-pointers (either by simply shooting more of them, or by acquiring players who are more proficient at shooting 3-pointers).
So we may be approaching peak 3-pointers but the answer to your headline question is "no", we have not yet reached the peak.