You write "This year has actually seen a precipitous drop from last year" as if it's evidence that shooting more 3-pointers isn't helping teams. But you completely fail to mention the NBA's new guidelines to referees, to stop awarding free throws to shooters who make "non-basketball moves".
That has caused the most precipitous drop in offensive efficiency in a number of years. Players such as Harden and Lillard who made a living by creating contact with the defender have been especially affected, as has the league overall.
3-points are barely a factor in this big drop-off in offensive efficiency; it's the rule changes that are the key factor.
You are on stronger ground with the analysis of the teams that shoot a lot of 3-pointers. It suggests that some teams -- the ones with a 3-point rate of 0.35 or higher -- may have reached the point of diminishing marginal returns. But that still means there are a lot of teams that should still be shooting more 3-pointers (either by simply shooting more of them, or by acquiring players who are more proficient at shooting 3-pointers).
So we may be approaching peak 3-pointers but the answer to your headline question is "no", we have not yet reached the peak.
I do mention the rule change implicitly as the reason for using *both* metrics of eFG% as well as points per 100 actually, the rationale being that free throws wouldn't affect the eFG%.
See the passage "What about the decline in free throws! I hear you ask. We can take that out of the equation by looking at effective FG%."
So the assertion that the I "completely fail to mention the NBA's new guidelines to referees" is I guess *literally* true, but not in the sense of actually being aware of it, and addressing it in the post, including with data.
"We can take that out of the equation by looking at effective FG%."
You can't simply segregate the effects like that; field goal percentages are directly related to how many free throws the refs award. The new foul guidelines have reduced field goal percentages.
Because if the refs aren't giving Harden free throws when he jumps into the defender as he shoots, then instead of getting 2 free throw attempts, he gets a field goal attempt -- a tough, contact-heavy field goal attempt that almost certainly has a low probability of going in (assuming he doesn't get called for an offensive foul).
Voila, instant reduced field goal percentage for Harden.
On top of that, his shot selection almost certainly has to have changed, e.g. instead of simply jumping into the defender and relying on the refs to give him free throws, he now has to take a real field goal attempt, against tight defense.
Harden is an extreme example but this applies to all NBA players, and this is why field goal percentages have fallen so much this year.
And that is why you can't look at this year's 3-point field goal rates and try to tell a story about how they're affecting field goal percentages. The field goal percentages have been reduced across the board by new foul guidelines, the effect of more or fewer 3-pointers is a minor factor.
It's like trying to explain how shooting more 3-pointers affects home attendance. If attendance is up, or down, this year, that's due to (a) Covid and (b) how popular or how well the team is doing. 3-pointers are way down the list of what's driving attendance changes this year, and they are way down the list of what's causing field goal percentages to fall this year.
You write "This year has actually seen a precipitous drop from last year" as if it's evidence that shooting more 3-pointers isn't helping teams. But you completely fail to mention the NBA's new guidelines to referees, to stop awarding free throws to shooters who make "non-basketball moves".
That has caused the most precipitous drop in offensive efficiency in a number of years. Players such as Harden and Lillard who made a living by creating contact with the defender have been especially affected, as has the league overall.
3-points are barely a factor in this big drop-off in offensive efficiency; it's the rule changes that are the key factor.
You are on stronger ground with the analysis of the teams that shoot a lot of 3-pointers. It suggests that some teams -- the ones with a 3-point rate of 0.35 or higher -- may have reached the point of diminishing marginal returns. But that still means there are a lot of teams that should still be shooting more 3-pointers (either by simply shooting more of them, or by acquiring players who are more proficient at shooting 3-pointers).
So we may be approaching peak 3-pointers but the answer to your headline question is "no", we have not yet reached the peak.
Hi Mike,
Thank you for taking the time to write.
I do mention the rule change implicitly as the reason for using *both* metrics of eFG% as well as points per 100 actually, the rationale being that free throws wouldn't affect the eFG%.
See the passage "What about the decline in free throws! I hear you ask. We can take that out of the equation by looking at effective FG%."
So the assertion that the I "completely fail to mention the NBA's new guidelines to referees" is I guess *literally* true, but not in the sense of actually being aware of it, and addressing it in the post, including with data.
"We can take that out of the equation by looking at effective FG%."
You can't simply segregate the effects like that; field goal percentages are directly related to how many free throws the refs award. The new foul guidelines have reduced field goal percentages.
Because if the refs aren't giving Harden free throws when he jumps into the defender as he shoots, then instead of getting 2 free throw attempts, he gets a field goal attempt -- a tough, contact-heavy field goal attempt that almost certainly has a low probability of going in (assuming he doesn't get called for an offensive foul).
Voila, instant reduced field goal percentage for Harden.
On top of that, his shot selection almost certainly has to have changed, e.g. instead of simply jumping into the defender and relying on the refs to give him free throws, he now has to take a real field goal attempt, against tight defense.
Harden is an extreme example but this applies to all NBA players, and this is why field goal percentages have fallen so much this year.
And that is why you can't look at this year's 3-point field goal rates and try to tell a story about how they're affecting field goal percentages. The field goal percentages have been reduced across the board by new foul guidelines, the effect of more or fewer 3-pointers is a minor factor.
It's like trying to explain how shooting more 3-pointers affects home attendance. If attendance is up, or down, this year, that's due to (a) Covid and (b) how popular or how well the team is doing. 3-pointers are way down the list of what's driving attendance changes this year, and they are way down the list of what's causing field goal percentages to fall this year.
So how big an effect do you think the rule change has had?